10
My bias is adjusting.
I was still quite bearish last week, but the current price action is significant enough that continuing to blindly expect much lower prices doesn’t make sense.
There’s now a reasonable chance $57k marked the low and we spend the coming months carving out a base into year-end, potentially within a broad $65k–$80k range.
That doesn’t mean I’m suddenly bullish either. I’m somewhere in the middle, waiting for the market to confirm the next move.
For me, that means a genuine change in structure and then, importantly, a higher low on the eventual retrace. Pullbacks toward $65k are where I’ll look to continue adding spot.
If this entire move unwinds over the next few days/week, the thesis changes again. At that point, it starts looking much more like a bear-market news pump.
Being fluid is part of trading. New information comes in, you reassess, and you adjust.
And if you’re feeling FOMO right now, get off X.
Macro trends don’t turn overnight. Even something as simple as the 12 & 25 EMA on a higher timeframe shows how these transitions develop. We don’t even have a bullish cross yet.
There’s plenty of time.
Let the market confirm the trend, then trade what’s actually in front of you.
