BTC Update
As discussed previously, July has historically been a seasonally strong month for BTC, even during prior bear markets. That aligned well with sellers being absorbed into the June 30 lows while higher timeframe momentum oscillators reached extreme oversold conditions and printed bullish divergence.
BTC did bounce throughout July, although the move was far less impressive than I’d expected. ETH was the clear relative strength leader over the month, which is obvious when looking at the ETHBTC chart.
So what now?
We’re now at the end of July, and BTC continues to struggle with the 65k region. This remains a major market structure level, sitting around the 2024 VWAP, and every attempt to reclaim it has been rejected, including today’s move.
Historically, July bear market rallies have often exhausted into month end or early August, and so far this cycle looks to be following a similar path. BTC has had plenty of time to build acceptance above resistance, but simply hasn’t been able to do it.
Looking at the lower and mid timeframes, market structure is also beginning to weaken. After sweeping liquidity above 65k, market structure resistance and the VAH, BTC has started printing lower highs and lower lows. Combined with higher timeframe momentum becoming increasingly stretched after spending the past month trading near the top of the range, I continue to favour rotation back toward the lower end of that range.
The first key downside area I’m watching is 62.8k to 63.1k, a HVN where prior month VWAP aligns with the developing yearly value area low. Losing that region would likely open the door for a quicker move back toward 60k.
There is still liquidity sitting above the mid-June high around 67k that remains untapped. If 63k holds, BTC could still squeeze into that area. However, unless price can convincingly reclaim and hold 65k - 65.5k as support, I’d view any rally as a liquidity sweep rather than the beginning of a sustained trend higher.
For now, my base case remains that the July bounce is nearing exhaustion, with lower prices likely into the back half of Q3. If BTC does go on to make fresh cycle lows, I’d expect that to align with what I believe will be the next macro accumulation opportunity. The anchored VWAP from the 2022 bear market low remains my primary higher timeframe downside reference.
Keep the range and these key levels marked on your chart. The best risk-to-reward continues to come from trading the extremes rather than chasing moves in the middle.
Will update again soon.
Dub
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4July 31, 2026 128 2
