BTC & Market Update
As stated in recent posts, the sharp move higher across BTC and the broader market has shifted my bias somewhat, and slightly earlier than I originally expected.
That does not mean I’m suddenly mega bullish. I’m somewhere in the middle, waiting for confirmation.
For me, a major piece of that confirmation would be a break above the prior HTF lower high around $83k.
Until that happens, BTC remains within a broader bearish structure and could simply print another lower high in the existing series. Clearing $83k and establishing a higher high, however, would materially change the picture. That would represent a genuine macro structure shift and significantly increase the probability that the cycle low is already in.
Following the recent expansion higher, BTC rotated through the entire developing yearly value area, moving from VAL to VAH. Price has since cooled at the upper end, capped around the confluence of the 365D rolling VWAP and 50W SMA.
On Friday, lower-timeframe structure shifted for the first time and we saw some retracement following Jackson Hole.
The first major area of interest below is the larger range VAH around $74k. If we see further downside, this is an important level for bulls to defend.
Below that, ~$71.5k is the real line in the sand for me. This is where yearly VWAP sits in confluence with the weekly 12/25 macro trend bands, making it the final major area I’d want to see bulls defend.
Acceptance below this region would mean BTC has effectively unwound the recent breakout and rotated back into the larger range. Coming directly after a fresh macro lower high, that would be far from constructive and would reopen the probability of another stab lower.
So, have your HTF levels marked.
The broader range is extremely clean, and I expect the best opportunities to continue presenting around its extremes and major structural levels rather than in the middle.
There is also a bigger-picture point that matters here.
Regardless of whether the bottom is already in, we are now in the later stages of the cyclical bear year. My plan has consistently been to begin deploying capital in Q3 and aim to have the majority deployed by late Q4.
That plan has not changed.
If the traditional four-year cycle is evolving and the bottom arrived earlier than expected, I’m already accumulating.
If it hasn’t, and BTC ultimately gives us another meaningful leg lower, I’ll continue deploying into it.
Either way, I believe we are within a very reasonable longer-term accumulation window.
Deploying capital progressively into daily and weekly retracements is the approach I prefer. Historically, positioning during the latter stages of the cyclical bear year has offered favourable risk/reward for the bull cycle that follows.
The goal isn’t to perfectly nail the bottom.
Whether your average entry ultimately ends up 10% higher or lower is unlikely to matter much if the broader thesis is correct and the coming years deliver another sustained bull cycle.
Stay patient & stay flexible. Trade the levels in front of you.
Dub
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