BTC Weekly
This is probably the most interesting BTC has looked in a while, but I’m not ready to call the bear trend over yet.
BTC just put together a monster weekly candle, broke out of the shorter term downtrend and pushed back into the low $70Ks. More importantly, price is finally getting back above that 200EMA area it has been fighting with for months.
Now it needs to hold it.
The first area I’m watching is around $72K-$74K. The .236 Fib sits right around $73.5K and there’s previous price action there too. Give me a weekly close above that area and another candle holding it, and I’ll feel much better about this move having some legs.
Above there, things get really interesting.
There isn’t a ton of volume between this area and the low $80Ks. If BTC can establish itself above $74K, I think $80K-$84K could come pretty quickly.
That $83K-$84K area is where I’d expect the next real fight. You have previous support/resistance, the .382 Fib and heavier volume all sitting around there.
But I’m definitely not ignoring the downside here either.
BTC just made a massive move in a very short period of time. Chasing a candle like this is where people get themselves into trouble.
If BTC gets rejected around $73K-$74K and starts losing these moving averages again, I’d be watching the mid $60Ks first. Lose that area and $60K-$58K is absolutely back in play. That $57.7K level is still a major line in the sand for me.
Short term, I’m cautiously bullish, but I want confirmation.
Mid term, holding above $74K opens the door to $80K-$84K. Reclaim $84K and I start looking at this as something much bigger than just another relief rally.
For alts, BTC holding here would obviously be huge. If BTC can settle down and consolidate instead of giving this entire move back, I think we start seeing money move further out into some of the beaten down alts.
For now, don’t FOMO into a giant green candle.
There will ALWAYS be another trade.
Keep those eyes on the charts. The next couple of weekly candles should tell us a lot. 👀
