U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment data are released today at 8:30 AM ET.
This is typically one of the higher impact macro event of the month and can drive significant volatility across:
• BTC and crypto
• Nasdaq & S&P 500
• USD
• Gold
• Treasury yields
What’s particularly interesting is that this comes while BTC volatility is sitting at historically low levels.
It’s important to note that volatility is direction neutral. It tells us very little about whether price is more likely to move up or down. Instead, it simply suggests the probability of a larger move increases as volatility begins to expand.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the move begins today. However, history shows that periods of unusually low volatility have consistently preceded significant expansions in price.
In general, the longer the market continues to compress, the larger and more volatile the eventual expansion tends to be.
Worth keeping in mind today, and as we move deeper into August.
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