Crude repriced twice. The cost of moving the barrel did not.
Diplomacy around Hormuz was enough to take the Dubai prompt premium down to $17.92/b by September 22, about $12/b lower on the week, and to pull ICE November Brent through $100, to $99.25. No agreement was reached. On September 24 the move reversed: November Dubai and Oman were assessed above $117/b, and Dated Brent near $125.52/b. The next session gave part of that back. November Dubai fell to about $113.29/b.
Freight stayed on the other side of that move.
Persian Gulf–China VLCC freight held near w1145, about $238/mt, against roughly w800, or $159/mt, for a Gulf of Oman loading. The gap is close to $80/mt before war-risk premium. VLCC earnings peaked near $1.019 million/day on September 21 and paused above $1 million. The next ship did not pause. US Gulf–UK Continent Aframax freight reached w625. Arab Gulf–UK Continent LR2 freight hit $156.11/mt, and Arab Gulf–Japan LR freight rose from w775 to w875.
More oil left the Gulf than in August, through a narrower corridor. Reported Hormuz crude exits were 7.64 million b/d in the September 18–21 window, and ship-to-ship transfers averaged about 8 million b/d so far in September, both up from 5.4 million b/d in August. Daily crossings were still 13–14 ships, against more than 130 before the conflict. Yanbu has not loaded crude since September 12. At least 24 million barrels were reported for lifting off the Omani coast in September and October.
Europe is short the sour barrel it can run, not every barrel. Johan Sverdrup was assessed at $24.21/b over Dated Brent on September 22. October West African crude was still long, with unsold volume put near 30 million barrels.
Products did not loosen when flat prices fell. ARA diesel and gasoil stocks ended near 1.636 million mt, about 25% below a year earlier. Middle East diesel into Europe averaged about 110,000 b/d, the lowest since February 2020. Russia's producer export ban runs through October. A US blanket diesel-export ban was set aside. The option remains open.
Inland Europe is a separate constraint. Rhine water at Kaub fell from about 22 cm on September 18 to about 5 cm, with forecasts near 1 cm around September 29.
Asia is where the spread now pays for a westbound voyage. The gasoil East-West spread widened to −$199.82/mt on September 23, the lowest since the marker began in 2009. That arb still has to clear LR freight near $156/mt. Fujairah product stocks rose 59% in the week to September 21. China is cutting runs because delivered crude is late and expensive. Lower Chinese crude demand does not automatically mean more product exports in October.
A softer benchmark is not a cheaper delivered barrel.
https://commodityscope.com
September 26, 2026 110
