COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 7, 2026
### CRUDE OIL
Crude prices moved sharply higher while prompt Brent structure remained exceptionally tight.
• Dated Brent: $129.09/b ↑$5.19
• Brent Dec: $101.57/b ↑$2.96
• WTI Nov: $88.28/b ↓$1.16
• Dubai Dec: $105.93/b ↑$0.24
Prompt Dated Brent backwardation remains extreme:
• Oct 12–16 CFD: +$20.50/b
• Oct 19–23: ~+$11.70–12.10/b
• Oct 26–30: +$6.50–6.80/b
Middle East physical flows improved, but Hormuz remains the critical risk point. Vitol estimated regional flows reached as much as 14 mb/d over the prior 7–10 days, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was running at 5.8 mb/d.
### DIRTY FREIGHT — NEW RECORDS
VLCC freight pushed to fresh highs across multiple basins.
🚢 Gulf of Oman → Far East: $166.66/mt ↑1.8% — record
🚢 PG → China 270kt: WS1,225
🚢 USGC → China: $240.74/mt ↑6.56% — record
🚢 WAF → East 260kt: WS725 ↑32
🚢 Brazil → China: WS710 ↑10 — record
US Gulf VLCC lump-sum economics also surged:
• USGC → China: ~$81 million
• USGC → UKC: ~$40 million
Charterers are increasingly splitting stems or downsizing as VLCC costs move deeper into historically extreme territory.
### ATLANTIC CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Record freight continues to distort Atlantic Basin crude pricing.
• WCS Hardisty: −$25.30/b vs WTI CMA — widest since Nov 2023
• Dalia: −$11.85/b, ↓$2 d/d
• Girassol: −$7.90/b, ↓$2
• Tupi: −$20.30/b — lowest since 2021
• Castilla: −$17.05/b
At the same time, short-haul North Sea barrels are gaining value as long-haul freight becomes prohibitive.
### REFINED PRODUCTS
Asia refined-product flat prices moved sharply higher:
• Singapore jet/kero: $173.48/b ↑$3.50
• Singapore 10ppm gasoil: $168.36/b ↑$3.62
• Singapore 92 gasoline: $147.31/b ↑$1.44
Europe also saw major flat-price gains:
• NWE jet CIF: $1,611.75/mt ↑$103.75
• NWE ULSD 10ppm FOB: $1,409.25/mt ↑$86.25
• Med jet FOB: $1,555.50/mt ↑$103.00
However, the transatlantic diesel arbitrage remains firmly shut:
• USGC → NWE: −$3.09/b
• USGC → Med: −$4.93/b
Expected US diesel/gasoil loadings to Europe in October are around 1.27 mn mt, down roughly 292kt m/m.
### MARINE FUELS
The East-West 0.5%S fuel-oil spread widened to a record.
• Singapore 0.5%S vs Rotterdam: $173.50/mt
• Previous session: $140/mt
• Singapore 0.5%S cash premium: +$25.90/mt
• Front-month 0.5%S crack: $26.45/b
The East-West spread is now the widest since Platts began the series in 2022.
Fujairah inventories also showed sharp moves:
• Light distillates: 559k bbl ↓1.057 mn bbl w/w
• Middle distillates: 2.292 mn bbl ↓398k
• Heavy residues: 4.723 mn bbl ↑813k
### CLEAN TANKERS
East-of-Suez clean freight remains very firm, especially around the Persian Gulf.
LR1 and LR2 rates moved higher, while some LR2 owners are considering switching vessels into dirty service — potentially tightening clean tonnage further.
Inside-PG loading continues to command a significant premium because of Hormuz risk.
In the Atlantic, however, MR rates weakened:
🚢 USGC → UKC 38kt: WS300 ↓60
🚢 USGC → Brazil: WS370
🚢 USGC → Chile: $3.6 million ↓$0.2m
### US INVENTORIES
US crude inventories fell further:
• Crude stocks: 424.13 mn bbl ↓3.19 mn
• Crude exports: 4.77 mb/d ↑33%
• Cushing stocks: 24.75 mn bbl ↑440k
• Canadian crude imports: 3.89 mb/d
US Gulf refinery utilization remains high at 95.9%.
### UREA
International urea markets remain under downward pressure ahead of India’s latest tender results.
• Middle East granular FOB: $420–430/t ↓$10
• Nigeria FOB: $440–450/t ↓$10
• Egypt FOB: $490–500/t ↓$5
• Brazil CFR: $460–480/t ↓$5
• NOLA FOB: $419–423/st ↓$10.50
India’s IPL tender is seeking 1.7 mn t, with loading by Dec 1.
Market speculation points to offers below $370/t CFR for one Indian coast, which could imply Chinese prilled urea netbacks below $340/t FOB if confirmed.
### MARKET
1October 8, 2026 12
