COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 8, 2026
Oil, freight and products all moved sharply — but not in the same direction.
CRUDE
Middle East pricing strengthened:
• Platts cash Dubai: $110.70/b ↑$4.77
• Dubai premium vs futures: +$10.72/b ↑$1.30
ADNOC set November Murban at +$11/b vs Platts Dubai, while SOMO cut November Basrah pricing for Asia, with Basrah Medium at −$2.80/b vs Oman/Dubai.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced major US Gulf shut-ins:
• US GoM oil offline: 1.283 mb/d
• WTI Nov: $91.49/b ↑$3.21
• Brent Dec: $104.28/b ↑$4.08
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DIRTY FREIGHT
The tanker market remains one of the strongest signals in physical oil.
🚢 WAF → East VLCC: WS762.5 ↑37.5
🚢 WAF → UKC Suezmax: WS975 ↑50
🚢 Black Sea → Med: WS1000
🚢 Brazil → China VLCC: WS725 — record
🚢 Vancouver → China Aframax: $15m ↑$1m
Inside the Persian Gulf, VLCC indications reached WS1270–1300, versus roughly WS820–950 from the Gulf of Oman.
That freight gap is increasingly reshaping crude economics across the Atlantic and Middle East.
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REFINED PRODUCTS
European diesel and jet surged again.
• ICE LSGO: $1,512/mt ↑$91
• NWE ULSD FOB: $1,476.25/mt ↑$67
• Med ULSD FOB: $1,462.50/mt ↑$70.75
• NWE Jet CIF: $1,679.50/mt ↑$67.75
• Med Jet CIF: $1,678.00/mt ↑$67.75
US inventories are also tightening:
• ULSD stocks: 93.73 mb ↓655kb
• Jet stocks: 42.50 mb ↓1.11mb
Jet is becoming increasingly tight as East-of-Suez flows fall, US stocks decline and refiners prioritise diesel.
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CLEAN FREIGHT
East-of-Suez LR freight strengthened for a second session.
🚢 AG → Japan LR1: WS925
🚢 AG → Japan LR2: WS910
🚢 Yanbu → UKC LR2: ~$12m
Global LR2 TCE pushed above $250k/day, while some owners are considering switching LR2s into dirty service — potentially tightening clean tonnage further.
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UREA — SHARP BREAK LOWER
India’s IPL tender triggered another major repricing.
• Lowest East Coast offer: $352/t CFR
• China prilled FOB: $320–355/t ↓$35
• Egypt granular FOB: $464–480/t ↓$23
• Brazil CFR: $455–470/t ↓$7.5
The $352/t CFR offer shocked the market and implies Chinese netbacks as low as roughly $320/t FOB.
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MARKET SIGNAL
🔺 Crude flat prices rebounded sharply
🔺 Dirty tanker freight remains historically extreme
🔺 European diesel and jet strengthened again
🔺 US product inventories continue tightening
🔺 Clean LR freight remains firm around Hormuz
🔻 Urea broke sharply lower on India tender pricing
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Shipping #Urea #Commodities
October 9, 2026 25
