COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET SNAPSHOT
30 SEP 2026
🛢 CRUDE
Dated Brent $120.44/bbl ▲ $1.35
Dubai Nov $106.19/bbl ▼ $1.31
Dubai Dec $98.56/bbl ▼ $3.11
Brent Dec $99.02/bbl ▲ $1.94
Brent/Dubai Nov -$3.05/bbl
Cash Dubai has corrected sharply from the recent $128/bbl peak on Sep 16.
Dubai forward structure also softened, with the Nov/Dec spread narrowing to $2.49/bbl.
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🚢 CRUDE FREIGHT
PG → China VLCC 270kt: WS1105
Inside PG: WS1050–1200
Gulf of Oman: WS700–750
WAF → East 260kt: WS500
WAF → UKC 130kt: WS515 ▲70
Black Sea → Med 135kt: WS522.5 ▲17.5
Ceyhan → Med Aframax: WS630 ▼5
Black Sea → Med Aframax: WS675 ▼15
Yanbu → South Korea VLCC fixtures: $5.5M lumpsum via Suez.
Inside-PG cargoes continue to command a substantial premium versus Gulf of Oman loadings.
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⛽ CLEAN FREIGHT
PG → Japan LR1 55kt: WS925
PG → Japan LR2 75kt: WS925
PG → UKC LR2 90kt:
$175.28/MT ▲11.88%
LR2 freight on WCI → UKC crossed $10M lumpsum.
A key fixture:
Sikka → UKC diesel, 11 Oct: $11M
MR supply remains tight across the region, while LR rates continue to receive spillover support from the exceptionally firm MR market.
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⚠️ HORMUZ / PHYSICAL RISK
Three tankers were reported hit by unknown projectiles around the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz transits Sep 29: 19 vessels
Monthly average: 21
Bab al-Mandab: 43 crossings, including 17 tankers.
Middle East crude exports through Hormuz, Fujairah and Red Sea terminals averaged almost 13M b/d during Sep 1–28 — still 36% below the pre-war February level of 20.2M b/d.
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🇪🇺 EUROPE PRODUCTS
Jet CIF NWE
$1,592.25/MT ▲ $102.25
ICE LSGO front-month
$1,464/MT ▲ $70.50
Jet premium over LSGO
$128.25/MT ▲ $31.75
Jet/ULSD regrade
+$2.41/bbl
FOB Rotterdam VLSFO 0.5%
$633.75/MT ▲ $19.25
Jet and diesel reversed sharply higher after the prior session's selloff.
NWE VLSFO remains very tight, with healthy LSFO demand across NWE and the Mediterranean.
Rhine @ Kaub: 1 cm
Further decline expected.
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🇷🇺 RUSSIAN PRODUCTS
Russia extended product export restrictions:
Diesel / gasoil / marine gasoil: through Oct 31
Jet fuel: through Nov 30
Gasoline: through Jan 31, 2027
S&P Global CERA estimates around 3M b/d of Russia's 7M b/d refining capacity has been affected by drone attacks.
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🌏 ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore 10ppm gasoil: 173.11 ▲3.11
Singapore naphtha: 92.52 ▲0.58
Singapore 380 CST HSFO cash premium:
$44.62/MT
East-West 0.5%S spread:
$152/MT ▲ from $145
Singapore expects around 1.5–1.6M MT of LSFO arrivals from the West in October.
The widening East-West spread continues to support arbitrage economics into Asia.
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🌾 UREA
Global urea prices remain under pressure following the latest Chinese export quota allocation.
Egypt granular FOB:
$520–535/t ▼ $7.50
Middle East granular FOB:
$440–450/t ▼ $5
Nigeria granular FOB:
$465–480/t ▼ $5
Brazil granular CFR:
$465–490/t ▼ $7.50
China prilled FOB:
$365–380/t ▼ $2.50
NOLA barges:
$430–435/st
Fresh Chinese availability remains the dominant bearish driver across international nitrogen markets.
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🔥 GAS
TTF front-month: €72.42/MWh ▲ >4%
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MARKET SIGNAL
Dated Brent ↑
Dubai ↓
Dirty freight firm / selective spikes ↑
LR freight ↑↑
Jet & diesel ↑ sharply
VLSFO tight
Urea ↓
The physical market remains heavily distorted by Hormuz risk, tanker availability and regional product shortages.
Flat-price crude is giving mixed signals, while freight and refined-product dislocations remain the dominant drivers of physical commodity economics.
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