Bernstein says Bitcoin can reclaim $125K before the real cycle peakBernstein thinks Bitcoin’s rebound is not just a relief bounce. The Wall Street research firm expects BTC to reclaim $125K by late 2026, then move much higher in the next cycle.
Their base case: $300K in 2029. Bull case: $500K.
What it means:— BTC has gained 28% in the last 10 days after falling around 50% from its October 2025 peak.
— Bernstein says the smaller drawdown shows the market has changed.
— Institutional buyers and corporate Bitcoin treasuries are giving BTC more downside support.
— The firm still keeps a long-term target near $1M by 2033.
Context:— Bernstein’s base case sees BTC at $150K by mid-2027.
— Then around $300K near the 2029 cycle peak.
— The bull case puts BTC at $200K by mid-2027 and $500K in 2029.
— Their model still follows the classic four-year cycle: breakout, hype, drawdown, accumulation.
Strategy is part of the same story. Bernstein says stronger BTC and STRC recovering toward $100 could let Strategy start buying aggressively again after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. The company still holds 840,447 BTC, about 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
Bottom line: Bernstein is not calling for one quick pump. It is saying the next cycle may already be forming — and if institutions keep absorbing supply, Bitcoin’s old brutal drawdowns may become harder to repeat.
Satoshi Tweeted🔑
