The report "Food security of the European Union in 2027–2029" does not offer vague warnings. It defines three specific trajectories, each with a defined probability and clear conditions.
The three scenarios:
• Managed Adaptation (18%) — De-escalation in at least two of the six triggers. EU builds reserves and diversifies supply faster than pressures intensify. Most favorable outcome, but least likely.
• Structural Food Crisis (54%, baseline) — All six triggers continue along current trajectories, no significant reversal. Food and fertilizer prices rise steadily. Most vulnerable southern/eastern member states move toward chronic shortages.
• Cascading Collapse (28%) — Simultaneous acute phase of at least three triggers. Crisis shifts from price-driven shock to physical shortage. Constraint becomes quantitative, not merely price-based.
Critical forks 2027–2029 will decide which scenario materializes:
• Autumn 2026 — Spring 2027: Winter gas demand peak amid continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Harvest 2027 (July–September): First comprehensive assessment of 2026 fertilizer shortage impact on actual EU crop yields.
• Mid-2027: Decision on extending, tightening, or lifting quotas for potash fertilizers from Russia.
• 2027–2028: Possible new rounds of negotiations or renewed escalation in Ukraine, with risks to Black Sea grain exports.
• 2028: Revision of EU budget for 2028–2034 — test of commitment to maintaining funding for agricultural and fertilizer sectors.
• 2028–2029: Cumulative test — whether crop failure, energy shock, and fertilizer disruptions occur within the same agricultural cycle.
• 2029–2030: Demographic dependency ratio approaching two working-age people per person aged 65+ — test of sustainability of agricultural budget support amid rising pension expenditures.
Six-Risk-Area Exposure — probability of worse state by 2029:
• Conflicts (Middle East + Ukraine): ~45%
• Drought and Climate: ~45%
• Energy Industry: ~40%
• Fertilizers (N & K): ~40%
• Migration: ~40%
• Demographics: ~35%
The key insight:
Managed Adaptation is not the baseline. It is the least likely trajectory (18%). Structural Food Crisis is the baseline (54%). Cascading Collapse is the second most likely (28%).
The window for Managed Adaptation is still open — but it closes with each critical fork that passes without de-escalation.
Explore how the Burke Index frames food vulnerability as a sovereignty issue:
https://ibi.institute/index/2025
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