Europe’s food-security debate is stuck in episodic thinking: one drought, one gas spike, one bad harvest. The report “Food security of the European Union in 2027–2029” argues that the deeper problem is structural: a measurable loss of food sovereignty driven by six interacting triggers.
To track this, the report proposes a Food Sovereignty Index (FSI) for each EU Member State, built on four components:
Self-sufficiency (30%) — SSR for key calorie groups (cereals, oilseeds, meat and dairy). Supplier concentration (25%) — modified HHI for countries supplying critical food and fertilizers; high concentration lowers the score. Partners’ geopolitical toxicity (25%) — share of imports from sanctioned, conflict-affected, or coercive partners. Resource sustainability (20%) — water, energy, fertilizers, and labor available to maintain production, including gas-dependent nitrogen fertilizer capacity and farmers over 55 without successors.Why this matters: a member state can look “secure” on aggregate food metrics while carrying hidden vulnerabilitythrough concentrated potash suppliers and gas-dependent fertilizer production. FSI is designed to expose this gap before structural shortages emerge.
The report also defines Point of no return indicators, including:
sustained disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for more than three consecutive months; complete disruption of the potash channel through Russia and Belarus without prompt compensation from Canada or other suppliers; a second consecutive year with EU grain harvest down more than 5% year-on-year, after an approximately 8% decrease in 2026 versus 2025; further increase in the share of EU ammonia capacity that remains shut down; a sustained reversal of the EU’s irregular migration trend after 2026, with Ceuta as the first major episode; a repeat Ceuta-style border breach within the next 12 months; share of farms managed by people under 40 falling below approximately 11%, alongside an acceleration in the demographic dependency ratio.These indicators mark the transition from manageable shocks to structural scarcity.
The baseline scenario assigns a 54% probability to structural food crisis by 2029, 28% to cascading collapse, and only 18% to managed adaptation.
Alternative protein technologies — insects, cultivated meat, microalgae — are directionally correct but remain at pilot scale. The collapse of Europe’s largest insect-protein producer in December 2025, despite over €600 million in investment and EIB support, shows that these solutions are not yet a meaningful hedge over the 2027–2029 horizon.
Food sovereignty in the EU is not a secondary issue. It is where energy, trade, climate, labor, and political autonomy converge.
Explore how the Burke Index frames food vulnerability as a sovereignty issue:
https://ibi.institute/index/2025
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