COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 29, 2026
Crude sold off again.
Dubai weakened for a fifth straight session.
European distillates followed lower.
But Hormuz freight is still trading in a different universe.
The market remains split between falling flat prices and persistent logistics risk.
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🛢 CRUDE
The selloff accelerated.
• Dated Brent: $114.82/b ↓$5.79
• North Sea basket: $119.12/b ↓$5.11
• Brent Dec: $114.06/b ↓$2.26
• WTI Dec: $102.00/b ↓$0.78
Dubai weakened again:
Cash Dubai premium: +$5.07/b ↓$0.61
That is the fifth consecutive daily decline.
North Sea physicals are also deteriorating, with November cargoes still unsold even as the December program enters the market.
Forties has been heard as weak as flat-to-negative vs Dated Brent.
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🇨🇳 CHINA — RUN CUTS
Chinese refiners are starting to react to weak margins and expensive feedstock.
At least five Sinopec refineries are expected to reduce November runs.
China’s new clean-product export quota:
5.65m mt
But initial November exports are targeted at only:
~3.13m mt
That is roughly 15% below October.
China gasoline + gasoil stocks are also near their lowest since early 2023.
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🚢 VLCC FREIGHT — HORMUZ PREMIUM HOLDS
PG → China VLCC:
WS1165
Gulf of Oman → Far East:
WS625 | $124/mt
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1100–1200
Gulf of Oman:
WS620–650
So despite the crude selloff, inside-Hormuz freight remains massively elevated relative to outside-Gulf loading.
Yanbu → Asia fixtures via Bab al-Mandab are being discussed around:
WS740–750
The geography still matters as much as the barrel.
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🌍 ATLANTIC / MED FREIGHT
Some routes softened sharply:
• Black Sea → Med Suezmax: WS975 ↓37.5
• Med → UKC Aframax: WS695 ↓80
• Ceyhan → Med: WS702.5 ↓80
• Libya → Med: WS712.5 ↓80
WAF → Far East VLCC remained comparatively stable at:
WS632.5
Atlantic freight is normalizing much faster than the Gulf.
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⛽ EUROPE PRODUCTS — SELLING PRESSURE
European refined products dropped sharply again.
• NWE Jet CIF: $1,539.75/mt ↓$53.50
• ULSD 10ppm FOB NWE: $1,435/mt ↓$43.25
• NWE gasoline: $1,135.50/mt ↓$28.75
But underlying diesel tightness has not disappeared.
The 50ppm–10ppm ARA spread widened to roughly:
$47/mt
while ULSD barges traded +$14 to +$16/mt over ICE LSGO.
European countries are also preparing to release more than 42 million bbl of strategic reserves over the next three months, with around half expected to be diesel.
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🇺🇸 US DISTILLATES
US ULSD exports fell to:
1.32 mb/d
— the lowest in 31 weeks.
USGC → Europe diesel arbitrage averaged:
−$0.68/b in October
vs
+$5.29/b in September
That helps explain why European diesel remains structurally supported despite lower flat prices.
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🇸🇬 ASIA PRODUCTS
Singapore product prices weakened again:
• 92 RON gasoline: $135.10/b ↓$3.70
• Kerosene: $165.24/b ↓$4.36
• 10ppm gasoil: $167.26/b ↓$3.75
Fujairah stocks remain elevated in heavy products:
• Heavy distillates/residues: 4.717m bbl
• Up 1.035m bbl w/w
That is the highest in three weeks.
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🌾 UREA / GAS
European gas remains the critical nitrogen-market risk.
TTF peaked at:
€100.72/MWh
and remained near €98/MWh.
AGF Nitrogen is considering plant shutdowns across multiple European countries.
Potential ammonia capacity at risk:
≥5m t
A full shutdown scenario could affect more than:
7.3m t
or around 40% of European ammonia capacity.
Egyptian granular urea remains around:
$535/t FOB
while Brazil softened slightly to:
$460–480/t CFR.
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MARKET SIGNAL
🔻 Dated Brent fell another $5.79/b
🔻 Dubai weakened for a fifth straight session
⚠️ Inside-Hormuz VLCC freight remains structurally expensive
🔻 European jet, diesel and gasoline sold off sharply
🔻 US ULSD exports hit a 31-week low
🔻 China is preparing November refinery run cuts
⚠️ TTF near €100/MWh is threatening European nitrogen production
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
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October 30, 2026 21
