COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 30, 2026 Hormuz risk is…

COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 30, 2026 Hormuz risk is back in focus. Dubai rebounded, tanker premiums remain extreme, European jet stocks hit a 12-year low — and TTF moved above €103/MWh. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🛢 CRUDE / HORMUZ Dubai cash-futures premium jumped: +$7.13/b ↑$2.06 ending five straight sessions of decline. Hormuz traffic recovered to 26 vessels, but fresh attacks and disruption reports kept risk elevated. PG → China VLCC: WS1215 Inside Gulf: WS1200–1450 Gulf of Oman: WS650–690 The inside-Hormuz freight premium remains massive. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📉 ATLANTIC CRUDE North Sea physicals remain weak. • Johan Sverdrup: −$0.79/b vs Dated • Forties heard near negative territory • Djeno: ~−$34.70/b vs Dated December Johan Sverdrup supply is set to rise to 700kb/d, adding further pressure. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⛽ PRODUCTS — EUROPE TIGHTENS ARA jet stocks collapsed: 380kt ↓17.6% w/w → lowest in 12 years Naphtha stocks: 270kt ↓25.6% w/w Fuel oil stocks also fell 18.1%. Meanwhile: • Jet CIF NWE: $1,585.50/mt • LSFO crack: $29.80/b — highest since July 2022 • Singapore–Rotterdam 0.5%S spread: $192.50/mt — widest on record ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌾 UREA / GAS European gas moved sharply higher: TTF: €103.54/MWh ↑~6% Egypt is considering a 20% cut in fertilizer production from November. Urea: • Egypt FOB: $535–540/t • Middle East FOB: $445–455/t • Brazil CFR: $465–480/t • NOLA: $442/st European nitrogen economics remain under severe pressure. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ MARKET SIGNAL 🔺 Dubai risk premium rebounded sharply ⚠️ Hormuz freight remains structurally elevated 🔻 Atlantic crude differentials remain weak ⚠️ ARA jet stocks hit a 12-year low 🔺 LSFO crack reached its strongest level since 2022 🔺 TTF broke above €103/MWh Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence. 🌐 commodityscope.com #Oil #CrudeOil #Hormuz #Freight #VLCC #JetFuel #Bunkers #Urea #Gas #Commodities