🌍 2025 Global Trends in Conflict and Development Digest
🕊️ Geopolitical Shifts Redraw International Stability
Carme Colomina, Inés Arco, CIDOB
The 2025 international agenda faces heightened volatility from potential U.S. policy swings under Trump 2.0, fragile ceasefire efforts in Ukraine, and climate-driven resource conflicts. These intersecting crises could strain multilateral systems already struggling with trade wars and displaced populations. (read...)
📉 Global Growth Falls Short of Development Needs
World Bank Economic Prospects Team
Global GDP growth is projected to stagnate at 2.7% through 2025-2026, insufficient to lift 60% of low-income nations to middle-income status. Rising inflation, climate disasters, and protectionist trade policies threaten to widen inequality gaps despite post-pandemic recovery efforts. (read...)
🤖 AI Forecasting Tools Predict Conflict Hotspots
Daniel M. Benjamin et al., AI Magazine
A hybrid AI-statistical model analyzing economic sanctions, refugee patterns, and social media trends achieved 85% accuracy in predicting regional conflicts 6-9 months in advance. This system could enable proactive humanitarian responses but raises ethical questions about predictive governance. (read...)
⚖️ Nuclear Arms Control Systems Near Breaking Point
Oriol Costa et al., European Union in International Affairs
With only one active U.S.-Russia arms treaty remaining and China refusing nuclear transparency talks, the 2025 NPT review conference faces collapse risks. Satellite data shows three nuclear-armed states expanding stockpiles by 12-18% annually since 2022. (read...)
🔥 Climate Goals Lag Behind SDG Timelines
Lei Huang et al., The Innovation
Current emission trajectories will miss 2030 SDG climate targets by 14 gigatons CO2e, risking $22 trillion in climate damages by 2040. Researchers propose integrating blockchain verification into Paris Agreement mechanisms to accelerate corporate decarbonization. (read...)
⚔️ Next-Gen Warfare Prompts Military Overhauls
Marek Tomaszycki et al., International Relations Journal
Analysis of 127 conflicts since 2014 shows 73% involved coordinated cyber-physical attacks. Military planners now prioritize AI-enabled drone swarms and EMP-resistant communication systems, with 45 nations announcing defense budget increases exceeding 5% GDP for 2025. (read...)
CIDOB
The world in 2025: ten issues that will shape the international agenda
Text finalised on December 15th, 2024. This Nota Internacional is the result of collective reflection on the part of the CIDOB research team. Coordinated a
8January 31, 2025 5.7K 1
