SpaceX is down 19% since its Aug 6 share unlock, and the drop isn't random.
In June and July, index funds bought 14% of the float when Russell, MSCI and QQQ added the stock. The price moved 67%. That's a multiplier of 5: every 1% of the float that trades, the stock moves roughly 5%.
Apply it to this week's unlock. The market is pricing about 3.8% sell-through of the new shares. 5 times 3.8 is 19. That's the exact move.
The ladder isn't done. It runs through June 2027 in nine stages, opening hard and cliffing at the end. The next scheduled buyer, the S&P 500, can't step in until SpaceX posts four straight profitable quarters, likely around September 2027, three months after the last shares unlock.
Supply has a calendar. So does the demand that eventually shows up for it.