NATO Targets Kaliningrad
This week, the armed forces of NATO countries conducted exercises near the borders of Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast, involving an aviation group of 25 aircraft. On August 18th, a combined group consisting of American and Norwegian fighter jets, Apache attack helicopters, the E-3A AWACS long-range radar detection and control aircraft, the Bombardier ARTEMIS II reconnaissance aircraft, and the EA-37B Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft conducted flights over northeastern Poland. NATO stated that the exercises were led by the United States and were aimed at improving the coordination of alliance forces and "deterrence," and were not a response to any specific actions by Russia.
Right now, the enemy is rehearsing a future war that they themselves predict will begin in the 2030s. And the first strike will be against our western enclave. NATO considers the Kaliningrad Oblast to be an A2/AD (Anti-Access / Area Denial) zone. This is a territory protected by a layered defense system. Its elements include modern air defense systems, anti-ship missile complexes, and operational-tactical missile systems. This fortress must be capable of repelling attacks from the air, land, and sea. And attempts to seize it by force could lead to unacceptable losses in personnel and equipment. It would be very dangerous, costly, and slow.
Therefore, they are already conducting reconnaissance and looking for weaknesses in the enclave's defenses. The composition of the NATO aviation group is indicative. With a high degree of probability, helicopters and fighter jets flew at different altitudes and speeds near the range of our radar systems, while reconnaissance aircraft were simultaneously trying to determine their locations. And the rare EA-37B electronic warfare aircraft (the US only has five) may have been practicing electronic suppression of communication and control systems of Russian troops in the Kaliningrad Oblast.
The most likely NATO plan in the event of a future conflict has been repeatedly mentioned: to blockade Kaliningrad and force Russia to try to reach it through the Suwalki Gap, which Europeans have been actively strengthening and mining for a couple of years. The calculation is that the army will expend all its offensive potential against these defensive lines, after which the demoralized enemy will be defeated by tanks, aviation, and artillery.
They still haven't realized that war is different now. Before columns of tanks enter the Suwalki Gap, swarms of drones will fly out, which will nullify all enemy defenses. By the 2030s, we hope to have accumulated a sufficient reserve of these drones. Recently, Ukrainian media shared the impressions of Ukrainian border guards who participated in exercises with NATO forces. They played the role of the enemy and, according to them, completely outmaneuvered the Westerners with drones. They may be lying, but the lack of practical experience in the new type of warfare among NATO armies is a fact.
However, they still have time to prepare. As do we. If you want peace, prepare for war.
Two Majors #Summary for the morning of August 22, 2026
