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Tidbits w Dom: post #591 — TG.ME

Tidbits w Dom@tidbitswithdom · 212 subscribers Open in TelegramOpen

crazy times

t.me/tidbitswithdom/591

2

2

September 2, 2026 76

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[media post] 76·Sep 2 Global bond yields are resetting higher together: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.7880%, a 20-month high. Yahoo Finance data put its 1 September close at 4.796%, up from 4.758% the day before. A bond yield is the return investors demand to lend to a government. It rises when bond prices fall. Japan’s 10-year yield reached 3.00% for the first time since 1996. The UK 10-year Gilt reached 5.2341%, its highest since June 2008, while its 30-year yield reached 5.8856%, the highest since March 1998. Renewed Middle East hostilities and higher energy costs are reviving inflation pressure. Euro-area August headline inflation rose to 3.3% from 2.9%, while energy inflation accelerated to 14.3%. Global bond markets are repricing inflation risk together. Sources: CNBC — Global bond yields, CNBC — Euro-area inflation, Yahoo Finance — U.S. 10-year yield 77·Sep 2 The Fed’s inflation threshold has hardened: At Jackson Hole, Chair Kevin Warsh put 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7% and its six-month pace at 4.1%. Both sit above the Fed’s fixed 2% target. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. July’s official release also put headline PCE at 3.7% year over year and core PCE at 3.3%. By comparison, the unemployment rate is 4.1%, low by historical standards, while private domestic final purchases are running at a nearly +3% pace in 2026. Warsh said broad financial conditions are hard to describe as restrictive. The catalyst is persistence: Warsh counted 65 months of elevated inflation and said the Fed must see underlying inflation moving to target clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, “we have work to do.” The Fed’s inflation hurdle has hardened. Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 73·Aug 30 The U.S. has secured majority control of more than 65 billion Venezuelan oil barrels: President Trump said the U.S. agreement with Venezuela covers more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves. CNBC reported that volume would more than double the U.S. oil reserve. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the U.S. government’s emergency crude stockpile. Its volumes had fallen to lows not seen since the 1980s earlier this month. By comparison, U.S. gasoline averaged ~US$4.09 a gallon on Friday, +27% from a year earlier. WTI fell 4% this week, yet remains more than +24% above its level when the U.S.–Iran war began; Yahoo Finance showed October WTI at US$83.44 a barrel on Friday. The agreement arrives while Hormuz remains impaired: CNBC, citing IMF PortWatch, reported only a handful of ships were recently crossing the strait daily, versus ~100 a year ago. Venezuela has become a new supply option in a Hormuz-constrained oil market. Sources: CNBC, Yahoo Finance 78·Aug 29 US headline inflation is cooling while energy inflation stays at 14.7%: US consumer prices rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. Annual CPI slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%, while core CPI slowed to 2.5% from 2.6%. Core CPI strips out food and energy to show underlying price pressure. It rose 0.2% in July. Energy prices fell 1.5% during the month but were still 14.7% higher than a year earlier. Shelter inflation, by comparison, was 3.2% year over year. The July release matched consensus estimates. Treasury yields barely moved: the 10-year sat at 4.69%, the 2-year at 4.203%, and the 30-year at 5.254% after the data. Underlying US inflation is easing, but energy remains the outlier. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC 121·Aug 13

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