Evening Wrap: CME Delivers G2 Storm
The long-awaited CME from the July 30 long-duration M1.9 flare finally arrived today and stirred things up.
Solar activity stayed low overall. The Sun produced only C-class flares, the strongest a C6.3 near the northwest limb. Region 4498 remained the most complex feature on the disk with some growth earlier, while other regions showed little change. No new Earth-directed CMEs appeared in the imagery.
A mild shock hit around 11:30 UTC. Solar wind speed rose from the low 300s into the 400–420 km/s range, density climbed, and the interplanetary magnetic field strengthened to around 13–16 nT. That was enough to drive the geomagnetic field from quiet conditions into active levels, then G1, and finally G2 (moderate) storming by 17:59 UTC. Kp reached 6. Additional G2 periods remain possible through the rest of the UTC day, with G1 lingering into the early hours of August 3.
Aurora potential is elevated tonight. High-latitude skywatchers have a solid chance, and under clear skies the oval could push far enough south for mid-latitude views in places that rarely see it.
Compared with this morning’s outlook, the arrival timing lined up well and the response reached the upper end of the expected G1–G2 range. No radiation storm developed and radio blackouts stayed quiet.
Overnight into tomorrow: Watch for continued elevated solar wind and lingering geomagnetic effects as the CME influence slowly fades. Activity should trend downward through August 3, with a return toward quieter conditions by the 4th. Solar flare chances remain modest (low with a chance of isolated M-class).
Starlink note: The G2 conditions can produce temporary increases in atmospheric drag at low-Earth orbit altitudes. Operators typically manage this with routine station-keeping adjustments; no major disruptions are expected from today’s activity.