QCP Macro Themes - 29 July 2026
Early earnings suggest AI infrastructure momentum remains intact. Celestica reported revenue of $4.70bn, up 62% YoY, and lifted its FY26 guidance to $20.5bn, while Seagate and Teradyne pointed to continued strength in storage, testing and compute demand.
The focus now shifts to Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Their results need to show that AI spending is translating into cloud growth and end-user monetisation—not simply fuelling another capex cycle. That matters as Nvidia sits at the centre of an increasingly circular ecosystem, while five-year CDS spreads across major AI hyperscalers have climbed sharply.
Broader risk also remains elevated. Renewed US–Iran strikes drove Hormuz traffic back towards a standstill, with just one tanker crossing as of 27 July. Meanwhile, the SPR remains at 311.4mb—its lowest level since March 1983 and just 11.4mb above the 300mb stress zone.
If AI demand remains intact, can monetisation grow quickly enough to support the capital behind it?
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