Markets are at record highs - so what now? 📈 The question in every… — The Grit Guide by Gerald

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Markets are at record highs - so what now? 📈

The question in every investment conversation: is this the top?

🏦 The Fed isn’t rushing to cut. Inflation’s cooled from its peak, but core PCE is still 3.3% (July) against a 2% target, with jobs holding firm. At Jackson Hole on 28 Aug, new Chair Kevin Warsh hinted the next move could be a hike, not a cut - and told markets to stop reading the Fed’s tea leaves. Base case: higher-for-longer.

📊 Bond yields are climbing. The US 10-year hit 4.8% (1 Sep), its highest since Jan 2025. When “safe” bonds pay ~5%, stocks have to work harder to justify their risk - which is why markets feel twitchy even at highs.

🤔 So why are stocks still up? Real earnings, for now - but mostly from a handful of mega-cap tech names, and it’s still unclear whether all that AI spend turns into profit. Two reminders: markets are forward-looking (grow 15% when 20% was expected, and you still drop), and record highs ≠ diversified (for example, STI is basically 3 banks; a lot of “global” exposure is really just tech).

🧭 My view: nobody can call the top - and anyone who says they can is guessing. What protects you is knowing what you own and why. Are your funds actually diversified, or the same tech bet but in different funds? Does your plan survive rates staying high?

Not a signal to panic or pile in - just a nudge to check your portfolio’s structure. That’s the part I mind, so you can get on with living. 🫶

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