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The Grit Guide by Gerald: post #506 — TG.ME

The Grit Guide by Gerald@gritguidebygerald · 156 subscribers Open in TelegramOpen

t.me/gritguidebygerald/506

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July 18, 2026 79

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Markets are at record highs - so what now? 📈 The question in every investment conversation: is this the top? 🏦 The Fed isn’t rushing to cut. Inflation’s cooled from its peak, but core PCE is still 3.3% (July) against a 2% target, with jobs holding firm. At Jackson Hole on 28 Aug, new Chair Kevin Warsh hinted the next move could be a hike, not a cut - and told markets to stop reading the Fed’s tea leaves. Base case: higher-for-longer. 📊 Bond yields are climbing. The US 10-year hit 4.8% (1 Sep), its highest since Jan 2025. When “safe” bonds pay ~5%, stocks have to work harder to justify their risk - which is why markets feel twitchy even at highs. 🤔 So why are stocks still up? Real earnings, for now - but mostly from a handful of mega-cap tech names, and it’s still unclear whether all that AI spend turns into profit. Two reminders: markets are forward-looking (grow 15% when 20% was expected, and you still drop), and record highs ≠ diversified (for example, STI is basically 3 banks; a lot of “global” exposure is really just tech). 🧭 My view: nobody can call the top - and anyone who says they can is guessing. What protects you is knowing what you own and why. Are your funds actually diversified, or the same tech bet but in different funds? Does your plan survive rates staying high? Not a signal to panic or pile in - just a nudge to check your portfolio’s structure. That’s the part I mind, so you can get on with living. 🫶 41·Sep 4 🚨 Moonshot AI May IPO Within 6 Months – Why Investors Should Pay Attention One of the biggest AI stories this year just got even more interesting. Chinese AI startup Moonshot AI is reportedly preparing for a Hong Kong IPO within the next six months, potentially at a valuation exceeding US$30 billion. Some interesting numbers: 📈 Annual recurring revenue has grown from US$200 million in April to US$300 million in June. 📈 Demand for its latest Kimi K3 model has been so strong that the company temporarily paused new subscriptions to prioritise existing users. 📈 Management claims Kimi K3 now outperforms almost every major AI model except Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 in overall capability. Why does this matter? This isn’t just another IPO. It signals that the AI race is no longer a US-only story. For the past few years, much of the market’s AI optimism has revolved around companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet. Investors largely assumed that America’s technological lead would remain dominant. Moonshot’s rapid progress reminds us that China is catching up much faster than many expected. Competition in AI is becoming global. What does this mean for investors? 1️⃣ AI spending isn’t slowing down. Companies worldwide continue investing aggressively into computing power, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure and AI software. The long-term structural trend remains intact. 2️⃣ Competition could reshape valuations. If Chinese AI models become increasingly competitive, investors may reassess whether today’s winners deserve their current premiums. We already saw semiconductor stocks react sharply after Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3. 3️⃣ Diversification matters more than ever. This is exactly why I generally prefer diversified technology exposure rather than concentrating too heavily in a single company or theme. Even if you’re convinced AI will transform the world (I certainly believe it will), predicting which company ultimately wins is much harder. History has shown us that revolutionary industries often create enormous value—but not always for the companies investors initially expect. My thoughts I remain very bullish on AI over the next decade. However, this news reinforces something I’ve shared with clients many times: Invest in the trend, not just the headline. The AI pie is likely to become much bigger, but the slices may be shared among more players than the market previously anticipated. As always, staying diversified and maintaining a long-term perspective will likely prove more valuable than trying to predict the next AI champion. Gerald Tan Creator of The Grit Guide 94·Jul 20 📈 June market round up 📉 The AI boom continues: Nvidia's new superchip sends tech stocks to fresh records https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-06-01-2026 Inflation hits 4.2%: why rising energy costs are keeping prices high for consumers https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/cpi-inflation-report-may-2026.html The Fed holds firm: interest rates stay put as officials watch inflation closely https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm Oil prices rebound: how renewed Middle East tensions are pushing up the cost of crude https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-poised-best-month-nearly-year-eyes-jobs-data-gulf-tension-2026-06-29/ The dollar strengthens: why global uncertainty is making the US currency a safe haven https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-poised-best-month-nearly-year-eyes-jobs-data-gulf-tension-2026-06-29/ Tech selloff hits Asia: rising AI costs spark a sudden drop in major chip stocks https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/26/global-tech-stocks-ai-infrastructure-costs-selloff-softbank-apple.html Bitcoin drops below $72,000: why major corporate sales are testing crypto investors https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-06012026-11987627 109·Jul 11

🌏 The best-performing market this year isn't the US. But most investors don't own a single dollar of it. Emerging markets are up over 25% in 2026 — roughly DOUBLE the return of developed markets (+12%). And here's what makes it more interesting: this is happening even with a firm US dollar and a hawkish Fed working against it. That matters. When EM rallies purely because the dollar weakens, it can be a currency illusion. When it rallies despite a strengthening dollar — like now — it points to something more real: actual earnings growth and money genuinely rotating into markets like Taiwan, China, South Korea and India. Meanwhile, the usual suspects are wobbling. Korea's market dropped almost 10% in a day last week on chip concentration. The S&P remains 33% concentrated in just 7 stocks. The growth story is broadening beyond the names everyone already owns. The catch? Emerging markets aren't something to buy blindly off a headline. Which markets, how much exposure, and how it fits alongside your existing holdings — that's where it needs to be done properly. Get it wrong and you're just swapping one concentration risk for another. If your portfolio is all-US or all-local, you're missing the part of the world that's actually moving. Drop me a message and I'll walk you through whether emerging markets exposure makes sense for you 📩 90·Jul 3

⚠️ Think you're diversified because you own the S&P 500? 7 stocks would like a word 🤣 Nearly a third of the S&P 500 (about 33%) now sits in just the "Magnificent 7". If the index is your ONLY holding, your returns are effectively riding on a handful of tech names — you're more concentrated than you think. And we just watched what concentration can do. On 23 June, Korea's KOSPI plunged almost 10% in a single day — its biggest point drop on record — because just two chip stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, make up nearly HALF that index. When they fell, the whole market fell with them. It rebounded within days, but that's the point: concentration means someone else's bad week becomes your bad week. Does that mean sell everything? No. S&P earnings estimates are still being revised upward (~$336 consensus for 2026, ~$385+ projected for 2027) — the fundamentals are holding up. The issue isn't the market. It's holding ONE market and calling it a portfolio. The fix is simpler than people think: spread exposure across regions and sectors that don't move together. Emerging markets, for instance, are up over 25% this year — and most portfolios I see intially have ZERO exposure there. When did you last stress-test your portfolio for concentration risk? If the answer is "never" or "not sure", a conversation with me is a lot cheaper than finding out the hard way 🤐 57·Jul 3

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