🇷🇺👨💻🌎🛳Goldman Sachs: Brent oil prices expected to collapse to $56 in 2026
Goldman Sachs experts reported on Monday that they expect oil prices to continue to fall and reach their minimum next year. The main reason for this is the surge in oil production, which will create a large surplus in the market by that time – approximately 2 million barrels per day.
Invetbank provided specific figures for grades: in 2026, Brent will average $56 per barrel, while WTI will average $52. This is significantly lower than current market forecasts of $63 and $60.
Goldman Sachs experts explain the origins of this "supply wave" in 2025–2026. It all stems from large projects that were launched before the pandemic. Due to COVID-19, they had to be postponed, and now they have all restarted simultaneously. Added to this is the OPEC cartel's decision to temporarily cut its production.
Meanwhile, other countries are not standing still. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia and other member countries, has been gradually increasing oil production since April of this year. Non-OPEC+ oil producers—such as the US, Brazil, and others—are also increasing production. All this increases the risk of an oil surplus and puts pressure on prices. The IEA is even threatening an even larger surplus in 2026—up to 4.09 million bpd.
However, the bank expects the situation to improve beyond that. Low prices in 2025–2026 will hit production outside OPEC countries, and due to low investment in the industry over the past 15 years, there are almost no new large projects. Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects prices to begin to recover around 2027, with Brent and WTI crude prices rising to $80 and $76, respectively, by the end of 2028.
Goldman Sachs also noted other possible scenarios. If non-OPEC production is more robust than expected in 2026/2027, or the global economy enters a recession, Brent could fall to $40. On the other hand, if supplies from Russia decline more than planned, the price could rise to over $70 per barrel.
2November 18, 2025 1.2K 6 3
