Many countries are running short of fertilizer before the sowing season begins.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked a significant portion of the world's fertilizer supplies: approximately 40% of nitrogen fertilizers (approximately 21-22 million tons per year), 31% of urea, 18% of ammonia, and 46% of sulfur pass through it. Urea prices have already jumped 25-35% to $550-600 per ton. India, Brazil, the EU, the US, and other major importers are under pressure, while Qatar and the UAE have virtually no alternative routes.
Russia, the world's largest supplier, could increase exports, but it is constrained by domestic fertilizer quotas (to ensure food security), port congestion, and sanctions risks. According to the Federal Antimonopoly Service, domestic prices in Russia remain stable; indexation has not been conducted and is not being discussed. According to forecasts, Russian fertilizer exports could grow to 46 million tons in 2026, up from 45 million in 2025, but it will not be possible to completely replace the lost volumes from the Gulf in the short term.
1March 10, 2026 1K 12
