COMMODITYSCOPE | DAILY MARKET BRIEF — OCT 19, 2026
Freight is easing outside the Gulf.
Dubai differentials keep weakening.
European products are firmer.
China is drawing crude stocks again.
The physical market is starting to rebalance — but Hormuz still carries a heavy premium.
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🛢 MIDDLE EAST CRUDE
Dubai weakened for a seventh consecutive session.
• Cash Dubai differential: +$3.83/b ↓$1.00
• Dec Brent–Dubai: +$0.18/b ↑$1.01
• Middle East crude exports: 11.9 mb/d
vs 15.0 mb/d in September
Brent–Dubai has now moved back above zero for the first time since August territory.
At the same time, Basrah remains aggressively discounted on FOB basis, while delivered-China economics still reflect high freight.
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⚠️ HORMUZ
Security risk remains embedded in freight.
Four vessel attacks were reported between Oct 16–18.
Hormuz transits:
• Oct 16: 25
• Oct 17: 15
• Oct 18: 23
PG → China VLCC remains:
WS1200 | $249.48/mt
Inside Persian Gulf:
WS1200–1300
Gulf of Oman:
WS750–770
The premium for loading inside the Gulf remains extreme.
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🚢 ATLANTIC FREIGHT — CORRECTION CONTINUES
Outside the Gulf, tanker rates are moving lower.
• WAF → East VLCC: WS700 ↓25
• Brazil → China VLCC: WS615 ↓70
• USGC → UKC VLCC: $32.5m ↓$3.5m
• Vancouver → China: $14.5m ↓$1m
USGC HSFO Aframax freight also fell sharply to:
$136.57/mt
That is down $61.97/mt w/w.
The freight correction is now broadening across the Atlantic.
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⚓ CLEAN FREIGHT
LR2 appears to have peaked.
Charterers are increasingly shifting cargoes into LR1s and MRs as economics improve.
Meanwhile, MR demand remains firm:
• Cross-Med 30kt: WS487.5 ↑37.5
• Black Sea → Med: WS517.5 ↑37.5
• UKC → USAC: WS185 ↓10
East Asia MR tonnage remains tight into early November.
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⛽ EUROPE PRODUCTS
European products strengthened:
• ULSD 10ppm FOB NWE: $1,476/mt ↑$38.25
• Jet FOB NWE: $1,599/mt ↑$31.50
• EBOB: $1,179.50/mt ↑$25.25
• Naphtha: $893/mt ↑$10.50
ARA diesel/gasoil stocks:
1.664m mt
Still 21% below year-ago.
Jet remains tight despite some easing in premiums.
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🇨🇳 CHINA
China’s crude system showed a notable shift.
September crude throughput:
14.04 mb/d
— a six-month high.
Crude stocks fell to:
1.252bn bbl
from 1.307bn bbl in August.
That implies a visible stock draw as domestic runs strengthened.
Imports also rose to a five-month high of 9.06 mb/d.
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⛴ BUNKERS / FUEL OIL
Singapore Hi-5 rebounded from an eight-month low:
$48.73/mt
vs $39.76/mt previously.
But high freight, insurance costs and Gulf security risk continue to constrain HSFO arbitrage.
Fujairah bunker sales improved m/m, yet remain sharply below year-ago levels.
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📉 CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS
Atlantic differentials remain under heavy pressure.
• Azeri Light: +$7.75/b
vs as high as +$18/b on Oct 12
• Djeno: ~−$37/b vs Dated Brent
• CPC Blend offers near parity
The correction in crude differentials is now as important as the flat-price move itself.
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MARKET SIGNAL
🔻 Dubai weakened for a seventh straight session
🔺 Brent–Dubai flipped back above zero
⚠️ Hormuz still carries a massive freight premium
🔻 Atlantic VLCC and Aframax freight continues to correct
🔺 European diesel and jet prices strengthened
🔺 China refinery throughput rose while crude stocks fell
🔻 Atlantic crude differentials remain under pressure
Physical markets. Freight. Forward curves. Spreads. Daily intelligence.
🌐 commodityscope.com
#Oil #CrudeOil #Freight #Tankers #VLCC #Diesel #JetFuel #Bunkers #China #Commodities
October 20, 2026 18
