✅ As the ISM Manufacturing Index rises back to the 54–55 level, a macro environment similar to the two previous crypto bull markets is being formed.
🗂 ISM and Crypto Cycles
• An ISM Manufacturing PMI above 50 indicates an expansion phase in the manufacturing sector.
• Based on current data, the ISM is maintaining levels above 54, showing a trend of economic expansion.
• The chart highlights that in both 2017 and 2021, the altcoin market expanded significantly after the ISM broke through the 55 level.
• The current market capitalization of altcoins, excluding the top 10 (excluding Bitcoin), is approximately $242B.
🗂 Past Cycles
• In 2017, after the ISM broke through 55, it reached a high of 60.8.
• At that time, the altcoin market rose significantly, with Ethereum increasing from approximately $8 to $1,400.
• In 2021, the ISM rose to 64.7, recording the highest level since 1983.
• During the same period, the total crypto market capitalization broke through $1T for the first time.
• In contrast, the 2025 ISM average was 48.9, falling below the 50 threshold for economic expansion.
• While Bitcoin and Ethereum hit new highs alongside ETF fund inflows, it is interpreted that strong liquidity spread across the broader altcoin sector was limited.
🗂 Current Checkpoints
• Since entering 2026, the ISM has risen back above the 54 level.
• This analysis focuses on the possibility that if manufacturing expansion continues, liquidity flowing through traditional financial markets may expand into high-risk assets.
• On the chart, the altcoin market cap is moving above a long-term support zone that has persisted for approximately 1,000 days.
• However, it is difficult to assume that a rise in the ISM will immediately lead to a rise in altcoins; the key is whether economic momentum continues in the direction of 55–60.
