Since early February 2026, Bitcoin has remained in a bear market after falling below both the True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis has now dropped to $68.5k, below the True Market Mean at $75.8k. This means Bitcoin is trading below the cost basis of both recent buyers and the broader investor base.
Historically, this setup is linked to the capitulation phase, where market bottoms often form. As long as Bitcoin stays below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the market remains in a capitulation phase—creating opportunities for new buyers, but leaving it vulnerable to further macro-driven downside.
September 6, 2026 137 2
