BAYKRIPTO MORNING MARKET — SEPTEMBER 4 Bitcoin is back above $81,000… — BayKripto

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BAYKRIPTO MORNING MARKET — SEPTEMBER 4

Bitcoin is back above $81,000.

But this move wasn’t random.

BTC: ~$81,000–$81,200

ETH: ~$2,515

XRP: ~$1.45

SOL: ~$104

BTC is up roughly 4% over the last 24 hours, after spending much of the previous session around the $77K–$78K region.

This is the first important change:

The $79K–$80K area has been reclaimed.

Now the question isn’t whether BTC can touch $80K.

The question is:

Can it hold above it?

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WHY DID BTC MOVE?

The biggest driver came from the rates market.

Earlier this week, traders were pricing the probability of a September Fed rate hike above 63%.

That probability has now fallen to roughly 50/50.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if inflation pressures continue to ease.

The reaction:

Bond yields eased

The U.S. dollar weakened

Global equities strengthened

Crypto risk appetite returned

BTC responded by pushing back above $81K.

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ETF FLOWS ARE IMPROVING TOO

According to provisional data cited by CoinDesk, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly:

+$277 MILLION

in net inflows on Thursday.

That’s a positive signal — but one day of inflows isn’t enough to call institutional demand fully restored.

I want to see whether the flows remain positive over the next several sessions.

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MACRO RISK IS STILL VERY REAL

Reuters reports that markets are now waiting for the next U.S. labor data and inflation numbers before the Fed’s September meeting.

At the same time:

The Japanese yen has strengthened sharply this week

The dollar is heading for a weekly decline

Oil remains elevated because of the Iran conflict

So this is still a macro-driven market.

One headline can change rate expectations — and crypto can react immediately.

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🎯 BTC LEVELS I’M WATCHING

$81K–$82K
Current battle zone.

Above $82K
Bulls begin opening the door toward the next leg higher.

Back below $79K
Would make the current breakout much less convincing.

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BAYKRIPTO VIEW

Two days ago, BTC was defending the $76.3K–$76.5K area.

Today we’re trading around $81K.

That’s a meaningful change in short-term structure.

But a 4% move in 24 hours is exactly where chasing becomes dangerous.

I don’t want to buy a move just because the candle is green.

What matters now:

1. Can BTC hold $79K–$80K?
2. Can ETF inflows continue?
3. Can BTC establish acceptance above $82K?

If yes, the structure becomes significantly stronger.

Until then:

Respect the breakout. Don’t chase it blindly.