Article by Prof Sreeram Chaulia on resurgence of protracted, high-intensity inter-State armed conflicts ("forever wars") driven by systemic multipolarity:
➡️ According to PRIO data, active direct inter-State conflicts jumped from 2 (2023) to 4 (2024), hitting 8 in 2025—the highest since data collection began in 1946.
➡️Cold War Era (1946–1989): Averaged 2–4 inter-State conflicts/year, driven by superpower-fueled ideological proxies with an average duration of 16–24 months.
➡️Post-Cold War Era (1990–2020): "Golden Era" of multilateralism and relative systemic stability (1–2 inter-State wars/year lasting ~3.5 to 4.5 months) due to respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and UN efficacy.
➡️Post-2020 Order: Shift back toward protracted wars (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war exceeding 4.5 years; Israel-Lebanon-Palestine conflicts; US-Israel vs. Iran).
Reasons for this shift:
➡️Complex Multipolarity & "Diffuse New Cold War": Unlike the original bipolar Cold War, the contemporary international structure features multiple power centers willing to directly attack or fund proxies.
➡️Asymmetric Counter-Balancing & External Backing like Ukraine’s resistance against Russia backed by US/Europe, Iran’s defense against US/Israel supported by Russia and China.
➡️ Advancements in defensive technology (drones, anti-tank systems, anti-aircraft missiles, counteroffensive strike capabilities) prevent easy land invasions and quick walkovers, grinding conflicts into wars of attrition.
As multipolarity solidifies and power transitions complete, a stable equilibrium may emerge.
Increased costs of aggression combined with advanced defensive deterrence will make power projection/regime change unviable (e.g., deterrence acting on potential flashpoints like Taiwan).
Article link 🔗
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/the-here-and-now-of-a-forever-war-period-russia-ukraine-us-iran-101785769192167.html
