This is the most important tweet you will read today.
Over a billion dollars of shorts got erased in a span of just one hour on Wednesday.
By the end of the week, the squeeze was worth more than $3 billion, making it the largest on record.
Each and every one of those shorts was placed by someone who was right.
Right about the drawdown. Right that the post-election euphoria was misplaced. Right that Trump was never going to come and rescue the market. Right that the leverage on display was absurd.
Right about all of it.
But they were wrong about a Wednesday.
And it didn't make any of them any money.
I've been telling you over and over again that you're not fucking bullish enough, and many of you decided to ignore it or laugh about it.
Right before the pump, I told you all that you weren't ready for what was coming. Because I know things some don't. It's called experience.
Some of you are only now learning the hard way why it's better to look like a dumb permabull and be the fool for eight months in a row than it is to be the smartest bear and get erased in sixty minutes.
And wether you shorted it or not or just started scaling out, right now everyone that has been a bear has less BTC than before, because they saw price go down, and then down again, and told themselves that the bottom would be lower, and waited to press 'buy'.
How many are sidelined now?
It feels exactly like a few years ago when we were at 17-15k smashing buy after being bullish since 25k and everyone laughed and said we were going to 10-12.
I guess they are still waiting.
The honest truth is that the market doesn't reward you for being right.
It rewards you for being exposed at the exact moment of the move, and you can't be exposed at the moment of the move while wasting your time trying to predict it in advance.
Time in the market always beats timing the market.
The average day you hold BTC is what pays you.
You need to be right twice, not once, to make money in this game, because timing always involves both getting out and then getting back in, and most people who are right about the first part are usually wrong about the second, because the conditions for them to feel good enough about the situation to get back in only present themselves after the move has already occurred.
Read this one last paragraph again, and engrave it in your mind.
That's why the people who sold near 95k in January aren't likely richer than you right now. They're waiting for the retest that the Treasury erased on a Wednesday afternoon.
Nobody scheduled this.
Bessent has doubled his long dated buybacks, yields have come down, Trump has leaned on the Senate to kill the clarity act, the SEC has put out their framework, and three days later we're at 77k, with most of you spending the intervening time writing tweets about how much further the bear market had to go to "find bids".
The catalyst never sends out an email reminder, it shows up on a random middle of the week and takes out anyone who wasn't already invested.
Now, the honest part, because I'd be lying if I didn't say it.
We're still sitting forty percent below the October peak, and lots of people are still bullish on another leg lower, and they might be right. It is still possible. I would be lying if I said that the pain was over for everyone.
But that's not the point.
The return is the compensation for the discomfort.
The market rewards you because you agree to feel worse than everyone else.
If sitting through a fifty percent drawdown was comfortable, there would be no premium to be had, and the price would never have gotten discounted in the first place.
The premium always reflects the fact that most people aren't capable of staying long through the period when they're mocked, when their PnL is negative for a year, when their friends stop asking how trading is, when it's generally just easier to be bearish and short the thing that makes you money. That's not a flaw.
That's the fee.
10000
