The Curse of Red September
Much has been written about the fact that September is historically considered a weak month, and during this period one can expect some flash crashes.
But what does the crowd think and what market scenario does it see? If you follow Twitter, Telegram and social networks, you can see the following pattern: we will go back and forth a little on BTC and ETH, collecting liquidity, and on September 17, when the Fed lowers the rate, a tuzemoon and altseason will occur.
But if you look at history and how it was last year, then after the rate cut we will most likely see the opposite effect, since all this time the market prices were held by the expectation of a decrease.
And then the rate was lowered, the market confirmed this signal - and the news is dumping. Of course, it is not a fact that this will happen this time, but the probability is high, and a similar scenario for the second half of September should be factored in: the market can fall even more.
Again, let's get back to history: the first half of September is only the sixth half of the year with the weakest growth rate, and the worst half of the year in history is the second half of September.
This post is not for panic, but for understanding that after the rate reduction, there is clearly no need to rush to wait for the altseason and run to buy all-in.
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