SunPower (SPWR) has had a rough ride with a bankruptcy in 2024 and now being rebuilt as a public company run like a PE vehicle. TJ Rogers, the former CEO of Cypress semiconductor, is doing a rollup of the US resi solar industry through share issues which has led the company's share count to explode. However, it looks like we may be closer to the end of that, as well as to a break even operation in Q3. Their Q1 call discussed breakeven in Q3 and generating FCF as the US solar sector has bottomed. There are big risks here, namely that debt is being services through equity issuance and therefore selling pressure and dilution. Their Q2 earnings call in August will be one to keep an eye on to see if we have inflected and order backlog continues to rise.
Seeing the Iran war not being over and energy markets remaining tight, as well as the structural uptrend in US electricity prices, the incentives for rooftop solar have never been better. It's an area worth keeping an eye on that most no longer care about.
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