The S&P 500 Enters Year FiveThe S&P 500 has gained 118% since the bull market began in October 2022. That makes it the third-best start to a bull market at its fourth birthday, based on analysis from Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick. Only 2 of the 7 other bull markets reaching this point in the past 7 decades started with larger gains.
History offers a wider range. Bull markets since 1950 delivered an average full-cycle gain of 192%, including 582% from 1987 to 2000 and 401% from 2009 to 2020. Detrick says that over the past 50 years, every bull market that passed its third birthday reached at least its fifth, with an average ultimate length of 8 years.
The S&P 500 is within 1% of its 52-week high and has risen just over 17% since its third birthday. Investors remain cautious because the market is tech-heavy and narrowing, with geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices. But forward valuations have fallen, leaving many popular AI names cheaper than a year ago.
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