AI Infrastructure Debt Is Getting TighterJPMorgan expects $5.5T of AI spending through 2030, including $4.1T funded with debt. Morgan Stanley estimates private credit will fund over half of the $1.5T needed for data centers through 2028.
Private credit investors can usually withdraw only 5% of their shares per quarter. In early 2026, Blue Owl, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, while the 30-year is near 5.5%.
AI revenue is still small relative to the buildout. Microsoft's AI revenue run rate is $37B and AWS's is $15B, versus about $650B of hyperscaler spending in 2026. The money is not gone, but cheap debt is. If AI revenue does not cover higher interest costs, lenders will fund fewer projects.
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