The NFP report delivered a massive upside surprise at +162,000 jobs - roughly three times the consensus estimate (around 55K).The report was even stronger beneath the surface, with prior months revised higher by a combined +55,000 jobs.
As expected, the initial reaction is a good news = bad news dynamic, as the much stronger labor data pushes Fed rate expectations higher. At the same time, the report is so fundamentally strong that parts of the market are trying to interpret it positively as confirmation that the US economy remains highly resilient. I can understand that. Nevertheless, the most important immediate implication is clear: Expectations for further Fed tightening have risen sharply.
Based on this data alone (inflation data will be more important), I would also say a cautious 25bp rate hike could send the right signal to markets without risking to de-rail the economy at all.
We are not buying here stocks for now even with in particular retail investors now wanting to jump into stocks.
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