— Lebanon stands on the brink of 'Ali al-Taher' — a major military operation?
The fragile calm that allowed the Lebanese-Israeli negotiation track to move forward, with two rounds in Rome, is now more fragile than ever. Any expansion of the US-Iranian confrontation will have direct repercussions on the Lebanese arena, especially since 'Ali al-Taher' has become the most dangerous sticking point in the southern scene. Indications suggest that the third round of negotiations, which was supposed to be held in Rome in early September, is now uncertain, with talk shifting to the second half of the month, as the US mediator has yet to achieve a serious breakthrough on the verification committee, pilot zones, or Israeli withdrawal. Sources following the matter fear that Israel is exploiting the pre-election period to impose new facts on the ground, and that 'Ali al-Taher' could become the flashpoint that topples not just 'Rome 3' but the entire calm the Lebanese front has seen. The increasing Israeli focus on the area, and talk of its strategic importance, coincide with continued demolition, bulldozing, and burning operations in several southern towns, suggesting that Tel Aviv is treating the current phase as one of improving field positions before any eventual settlement. Wide-informed sources say the real fear is that Benjamin Netanyahu decides to launch a major military operation in Ali al-Taher if he finds that escalation serves his electoral calculations, especially given the Lebanese belief that current US pressure on Tel Aviv is not enough to force real concessions.@TPOnow
