🏛 RBI Holds Rate at 5.25%, Flags Inflation Risk
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously kept its repo rate at 5.25% at its August 3–5, 2026 meeting, holding a neutral stance. Inflation rose to 4.4%, while the RBI raised its 2026-27 GDP growth forecast to 6.7%.
Minutes show members agreed the inflation rise is mainly supply-driven, via food and fuel prices. Views diverged on caution: Poonam Gupta said a rate hike "could become necessary later in the year" if inflation stays elevated, while others stressed the shock's temporary nature.
The next policy move depends on whether supply shocks fade or spread into wages and broader inflation expectations.
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