Have markets started pricing in the end of the war?
BTC > 70k — we finally broke out of the range we had been stuck in for nearly five days, waiting for something to happen.
What exactly is driving the move is hard to say. It could be a similar situation where BTC was bought on fears of further escalation, a liquidity grab driven by manipulation, or an actual positive reaction to the possibility of the war ending.
Yes, there are some leaks emerging, though not the most reliable ones, suggesting that the US and Iran are working on a plan and negotiating around it. The reported framework includes a two stage deal: an immediate ceasefire, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a full agreement within 15 to 20 days.
At the same time, we can see the kind of statements Trump keeps throwing around. He is setting new deadlines, which could simply be extra time to prepare strikes or a ground operation. Iran is also publicly denying any “deal.”
So overall, we are heading into a “fun” but very important week that could define the next direction of the conflict: either escalation and deeper US involvement in the war with even more serious consequences, or de escalation. For now, unfortunately, the first scenario still looks more realistic.
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