Market Update Markets are 100% expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps on Sept 17th, with some anticipating another one to two cuts later this year which has fueled the run we're seeing. Sentiment still leans bullish as the market prices in easier liquidity, a softer dollar, and renewed “risk-on” appetite, with Bitcoin already rallying toward resistance. However, because the cut is largely priced in, the real driver will be the Fed’s guidance. Dovish signals could extend the upside, while a cautious or hawkish tone risks a “sell-the-news” reaction and near-term volatility. Other news items included:
- Michael Saylor hints at buying more Bitcoin
- Publicly traded Capital B buys another 48 $BTC worth $5.6 million.
- Pakistan’s government welcomes global crypto companies to secure national licenses.
- U.S and China begin economic trade discussions in Madrid
- DOGE ETF delayed until later this week
- AVNT ranks among the top gainers as it's listed on Binance, Upbit, Crypto.com, and Bithumb, all within 1 hour, showing that appetite has definitely returned in the market
Upcoming Events
- Sept 17th FOMC Meeting
The market had a slight pullback as people are now front-running the rate cut "sell-the-news" which could even make it a "buy-the-news". I'll be watching ETF flows today (especially since SOL is now included) and keep an eye on all of the different narratives. Currently it's been the streamer narrative, trading cards, AI, and onchain perps (HYPE and AVNT). This shows that traders are ready to up the risk and we're seeing that with more investments onchain.
BTC/ETH Analysis We're finally getting the pullback we were expecting on BTC from the overbought daily StochRSI and the 5 days of inflows while being at major resistance. This is why it pays to study technicals. The next area of interest remains 114k for a potential bounce as we near interest rate cuts Sept 17th. Like I mentioned before, we could be front-running the "sell-the-news" and the cuts end up being a "buy-the-news" event. The 114k level coincides with liq clusters of the 24H heatmap while we have even bigger clusters near 113k. Both areas that I would be DCAing. I'll be watching ETF flows today and keep you updated along the way.
Major resistance is 115.6k, 116.8k, 120k, 123k
Major support is 114k, 112k, 110k, 108k, 106.4k, 104k, 100k
ETH also had a pullback as we expected. The StochRSI is retracing after becoming overbought and the RSI is very close to crossing below its signal line. Keep an eye on 4480 being the first area of support, followed by 4300. The market is very volatile ahead of rate cuts so never rush a trade, and instead wait for it to come to you while your indicators are in confluence and price is at major support levels on the daily/weekly timeframes.
Major resistance is 4640, 4760 and 4950
Major support is 4500, 4300, 4060, 3830, 3630, 3500, 3270, 3050, 2820
