What’s the takeaway?
Commercial real estate is a classic cyclical asset. Easy money and abundant credit push prices higher for years. Higher rates or economic shocks trigger sharp corrections.
Key point: these are real prices (inflation-adjusted). Even after stripping out CPI, we still see swings of 30–40%+. That matters a lot for long-term investors, REITs, and banks — it directly hits collateral values and real returns.
The current correction looks pretty consistent with past patterns… just mixed with higher-for-longer rates and post-COVID shifts (remote work pressure on offices, etc.).
Bottom line: US commercial property has a habit of correcting meaningfully after long easy-money periods. Short-term horizon? Stay cautious. Long-term? These swings are part of the game.
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@RezaMacroEdge
August 25, 2026 14
