Macro & Markets | Reza Ghanipour

#Bitcoin My previous Bitcoin analysis was that after rallying toward $72K, BTC would enter a deeper correction. The market took a different path and pushed up to $82K — and we have to update our view as the market evolves. My current scenario is that Bitcoin could make another move toward $85K be…

What’s the takeaway? Commercial real estate is a classic cyclical asset. Easy money and abundant credit push prices higher for years. Higher rates or economic shocks trigger sharp corrections. Key point: these are real prices (inflation-adjusted). Even after stripping out CPI, we still see swings …

What the US Commercial Property Price Index is really telling us Check out this chart… real (CPI-adjusted) commercial property prices in the US from 1985 to now. Clear cycles jump out: Late 80s to mid-90s → -35% over 9 years Then a strong run → +107% over 11 years peaking around 2007-08 G…

So what does this tell us? The market has spent a significant portion of its long-term upward journey below its previous high. A 5% or even 10% correction isn't necessarily something unusual or a sign that the trend is broken. It's simply part of how markets normally behave. What is actually rare …

The Stock Market Isn't Supposed to Go Up All the Time There’s an interesting statistic on the S&P 500 that gives you a pretty good perspective on market corrections. From 1950 to 2026, the S&P 500 was at least 5% below its all-time high on 55.8% of trading days. For deeper drawdowns: At least 1…

$40 Trillion of U.S. Debt An interesting piece of news has come out of the U.S. Treasury. The Treasury says it plans to increase buybacks of long-term Treasury bonds. So what does that mean? Very simply: when investors become less willing to hold long-term bonds, prices fall and yields rise. And …

Gold’s share of total global reserves climbed from 9% in 2015, rose steadily, and then surged after 2023 to hit 26%! In just the last two or three years, central banks around the world have been buying gold so aggressively — and the price has jumped so hard — that it looks like they’re preparing fo…

A massive copper shortage is expected over the coming 15 years ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ @RezaMacroEdge

How Much Do Professional Traders Really Make? One question almost every trader eventually asks is: “How much do professional traders typically make per year?” If you spend enough time on social media, you’ll probably come across some very impressive numbers. But once we step away from Instagram an…

Bitcoin’s recent rallies are still lacking meaningful spot demand. A large part of the recent upside has been driven by the futures market and leveraged positioning rather than genuine spot buying. Historical market cycles suggest that the strongest and most sustainable Bitcoin rallies tend to oc…

#Bitcoin — Bearish Bias The current market structure still suggests downside potential in my view. My primary scenario is a continuation of the correction toward lower levels, unless price breaks and holds above the invalidation zone, which would invalidate the bearish thesis. This is a scenario, n…

So far, with 88% of S&P 500 companies having reported their Q2 earnings, year-over-year earnings growth has reached an astonishing 50.4%. To put that number into perspective, analysts had previously expected earnings growth of roughly 23%. That means actual earnings growth is now more than twice th…

Over the past decade, every major fiat currency has lost more than 98% of its value against Bitcoin. The Japanese yen recorded the worst performance, declining by approximately 99.4% versus Bitcoin. The Swiss franc performed the best among major fiat currencies—yet it still lost nearly 98.8% of it…

If you only look at the price chart, you might think gold's bull market is over. But the gold ETF data tells a different story. Since February 2026, gold prices have fallen by about 16%, while total gold ETF holdings have declined by only 3%. That suggests this isn't a broad investor exodus. In a …

Money printing is not neutral. When an economy isn't generating real growth in goods and services, creating new money doesn't create new wealth—it simply redistributes existing wealth. Those who receive newly created money first can spend it before prices adjust. By the time that money spreads thro…