📰 NFP lands at 12:30 UTC.
Consensus is +50-60k jobs, unemployment 4.1%, wages +0.2% m/m. ADP came in at +38k on Wednesday, its weakest month since January. July printed -23,000 against +80,000 expected.
Context that changes how the number reads: inflation at 3.7% on the Fed's preferred measure, oil near $95, and September 16 hike odds moving from roughly 37% to above 60% this week.
BTC holding $80,000. Gold holding ~$4,450. 10y yields at 4.75%.
The dollar usually moves first.
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1September 4, 2026 1.2K 2
