gm
$BTC printed a huge weekly bullish divergence last month.
Looking at the last cycle bottom I find some interesting similarities:
- Both divergences occurred at the local lows and well under the 200w EMA;
- Both lows took exactly 147d to form and to print the weekly divergence;
- Both first lows were also the lowest the Weekly RSI had gone for the entire cycle and considerably lower than all other low RSI prints (peak fear sentiment was reached).
Need to watch this unfold over the next weeks and see how it reacts as it approaches a crucial zone: the 200W EMA (purple line) that also sits exactly at the current downtrend (dashed pink line).
If summer doesn't bring any more geopolitical chaos (and that's a big ask because of the orange man in power), then the bottom is likely in and a breakout from that downtrend would also match with a reclaim of the 200W EMA.
Things starting to get interesting. Also pretty much everyone expects another drop to like sub 50k and some are even sure we'll get 40k lows... which means everyone is probably wrong and the path of most pain is up.
Personally will keep enjoying real life and not waste time on a market that stays in hard mode. I know on-chain has had some crazy runs recently but yeah, my personal time and well-being are more important at this point. Perks of being here for multiple cycles grinding hard. Hopefully some of those still around will get there too.
See ya in the next post!
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1July 24, 2026 609 3
