The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) prices goods differently depending on how much carbon went into making them.
Mozambique tops the World Bank's CBAM Exposure Index, with aluminium accounting for nearly all its exports to the EU — and public debt near 70 percent of GDP. This is the compounding effect: a narrow export base, heavy carbon exposure, and little capacity to absorb the hit. This pattern isn't confined to a few unlucky countries.
Rather, this brief argues that CBAM should be understood as a question of economic resilience for the Global South, not just a trade or climate-policy issue: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/beyond-export-competitiveness-the-fiscal-risk-of-carbon-tariffs
orfonline.org
Beyond Export Competitiveness: The Fiscal Risk of Carbon Tariffs
September 2, 2026 343
