The Trump administration's "maximum economic pressure" campaign against Iran is delivering a devastating blow to ordinary Iranian families, but analysts increasingly view it as a blunt instrument unlikely to force the regime's hand in negotiations.
On the ground, the suffering is undeniable. Long queues have formed outside gas stations in Tehran as panic buying grips the capital, with drivers rushing to fill tanks ahead of planned fuel rationing. Supermarkets have temporarily run out of cooking oil and rice as shoppers hoard essentials. Iran's rial hit a record low of over two million to the dollar this week, inflation stands at a staggering 66% as of July, and food prices have soared 128% year-on-year. Even meat is now often bought on credit, paid back in painful installments. Small labor demonstrations are re-emerging — oil workers, pensioners, and teachers are gathering to voice their anger.
Yet Washington's bet that public desperation will translate into political capitulation faces a harsh reality: the Iranian leadership has weathered decades of sanctions and frames this struggle as an existential one. Analysts argue that what the US views as leverage, Tehran views as a test of survival. The regime has already drawn up a two-year plan to counter the economic assault, and officials have dismissed the latest US moves as a "repetitive movie" they know how to handle. Forcing Iran to abandon its core security interests would be seen as strategic surrender rather than compromise, a line no leadership is likely to cross.
Compounding the complexity is a bitter irony: the economic war is not cost-free for its architects. Global oil prices have jumped, with Brent crude climbing above $93 a barrel, and US gasoline prices are already up 29% from a year ago. Analysts warn that if the conflict escalates, oil could surge past $100, feeding back into American inflation and consumer pain.
So while the sanctions are squeezing Iranians to the breaking point, they appear to be forging not a path to peace, but a prolonged stalemate — one where both sides are paying a price, and the Iranian people are bearing the heaviest burden.
#Iran #foreignpolicy #globaleconomy #USeconomy #sanctions
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