Overnight a couple of comments:
1st THE FED & Rates:
Fed Chmn Warsh “talks like a Hawk but flies like a chicken”! (Tx DP)
Nutstuff sees all this as simply yet more WTFU to the lunacy of western economy debt levels; and yes, something changed this week, and I don’t think the market has fully appreciated it. For the best part of 15 yrs investors believed central banks set financial conditions. Increasingly, they now realise they don’t. The Fed held rates and yet the bond market tightened anyway, sending the 30-year to its highest level since 2007. I still say higher! = more “Hard assets” everyone!
EQUITY MARKETS & PORTFOLIO: more tomorrow in Nutstuff!
Great to see huge alpha from my “Perceived Victims of AI” stocks added 6 weeks ago as Korean Adr’s were trading at 30% premiums for next to no reason! I said Nutstuff loved a Korean BBQ but this should now finally be resonating!
An old Nutstuff adage: “when everyone loves something it must go down when everyone hates something it may go up”, Honestly all the blabber out there is STILL on stuff that isn't working. Can any of you name the S&P100 stocks here at ATH’s?! There are many!
Meanwhile, nearly 10% of all HY issuance this year is hyperscalers and yes of course, 52% of the S&P500 in 24 stocks! (not for long). Think of these in a rather non-PC analogy; essentially many of these are simply the FAT & GREEDY all taking part in a debt fueled electricity eating competition ( especially when the only thing fat about them up until 2 yrs ago was their margins and FCF) all that vs the owning the echosystem that makes it. Take META the “arch time waster” as Jim Mellon calls it, why would anyone own any of the likes of these now?! ( and yes does Nutstuff think a number of these key tech bottleneck names will be worth more in the next 2-3yrs, YES! We have exposures but are pared back here. Now another adage “however much you love your boat dont park it under a waterfall”!
More on nutstuff tomorrow…
July 30, 2026 258
