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Nutstuff: post #413 — TG.ME

Nutstuff@nutstuff · 293 subscribers Open in TelegramOpen

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July 23, 2026 167 1

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[media post] 98·Sep 2 Still a fun market for special-sit “minnows” in Verticals we like/ Uranium. XRI CN Added 2 mths ago, Nutstuff updated on Monday.. Today +37.5% on strong volume.. XCITE URANIUM / XRI CN: Nutstuff just checked in with the CEO last week and wants to remind you that I started buying Xcite a couple of months ago, at what I saw and still see as an absurd C$15.7m market cap, of which C$4m is cash. The drill is turning in the Athabasca Basin, and all three initial holes encountered anomalous radioactivity, with peak readings above 34,000 CPS; that's more than twice the 13,900 CPS result that helped propel Cosa towards a C$93m valuation. Assays must still confirm the uranium grade, but the geological ambition is roughly 1% U₃O₈ across a footprint comparable with Lion One, potentially at two to three times the grade, with holes nine and ten looking particularly important. The really interesting part, however, is scale. Xcite is now pursuing a funded acquisition containing approximately 270m lbs, with around 80% of the relevant licences already renewed, and ultimately wants to assemble 420–500m lbs. Put that beside the industry: NexGen discovered Arrow in 2014, spent twelve years proving 337m lbs and is only now financing and constructing the mine; UEC has roughly 329m lbs and is valued near US$6.1bn; Cameco has 433m lbs of reserves and roughly 989m lbs across reserves and resources; Kazatomprom has around 782m lbs of attributable reserves and 1.32bn lbs of measured and indicated resources; and Orano has approximately 804m lbs across its principal reporting categories. Xcite is obviously not yet any of those companies. A lot to do; acquisitions must close, the remaining licences must be renewed, the historical pounds must become compliant resources, the discovery must be assayed, and the economics must work. But that is precisely why the valuation is C$15.7m rather than £1bn. With Julian Treger already on the register, cash in the bank, three discoveries from the first three holes, and several ways to build scale, the market is pricing Xcite as another microscopic explorer while management is attempting to assemble one of the world’s largest uranium inventories. The route to £1bn is brutally simple: acquire the 270m lbs, prove the Athabasca grade, grow towards 500m lbs, and force Xcite onto the same comparison sheet as NexGen, UEC, and Cameco. Most juniors promise a mine; Xcite is trying to build a uranium company. That is why I have bought it… 100·Sep 2 NVIDIA and…. There is an awful lot going on here, but Jensen Huang may have just given us the sentence that matters: “compute is revenue.” Nvidia has just delivered $96.2bn of quarterly revenue, up 106% year on year and 18% in a single quarter, with Data Center revenue of $89bn, up 117%, and is guiding the next quarter to $108bn. Put that growth against the valuation and the “Nvidia is insanely expensive” argument becomes rather less obvious: the shares are around 32x trailing earnings and roughly 21–24x forward earnings. This is a $5tn company growing quarterly revenues at triple digits and earnings even faster, yet the market initially throws its toys out of the pram because gross margin is 74.4% rather than the 74.8% analysts fancied. Monkeys. The bigger message is that AI has crossed from experimentation into useful, productive and increasingly profitable work. That is why I keep saying own the bottlenecks AND the applications. We need more chips, memory, power, data centres and connectivity, but increasingly the interesting question is what all this intelligence actually does. And this is where AI and digital assets start colliding. AI agents cannot swipe Visa cards, remember PINs or wait two days for a bank transfer; they need programmable wallets and instant machine-to-machine settlement. Stablecoins, blockchain rails and tokenised assets suddenly stop looking like crypto toys and start looking like infrastructure for an autonomous economy. Meanwhile Bitcoin remains the scarce monetary asset sitting alongside an increasingly abundant world of intelligence. Forget whether Bitcoin reaches $150,000 or $300,000 on precisely somebody’s spreadsheeted date; the direction of travel matters more. Scarce compute, scarce energy, scarce digital money and an explosion in intelligent applications. Own the bottlenecks, own the rails and increasingly own what runs across them. 162·Aug 26

[media post] 147·Aug 25 Tungsten West / TUN LN. Huge move today +15% , now £630m mkt cap, been the best-performing stock in the Nutstuff portfolio over the last 18 months and +300% YTD. Why you may ask? And yes, its a UK stock! Because it simply fits our Maslowian “needs rather than wants” framework and is now one of our top five holdings by portfolio weighting. Huge credit here to Pete Davies at Lansdowne, who originally brought the idea to us and made the introduction. By way of reminder: Tungsten is an exceptionally hard, heat-resistant metal essential to defence, aerospace, advanced manufacturing, electronics and next-generation energy, yet global supply remains overwhelmingly dominated by China. As export restrictions and geopolitical tensions increase, Western governments are being forced to prioritise secure access to critical raw materials. Hemerdon in Devon is one of the world’s largest tungsten resources, with around $300m of infrastructure already sunk into the site and the potential ultimately for a 40-year-plus operating life. Today’s £71m National Wealth Fund package therefore matters enormously because it substantially removes the financing risk that has dominated the equity story, while potentially making the UK Government a customer for up to 50% of Hemerdon’s tungsten production. I retain some scepticism about treating NWF backing itself as proof of wonderful economics. I was told earlier by someone else ( Tx Robin) who attended an NWF presentation last year, who reminded me that the CEO was refreshingly clear that part of the purpose of the £22bn fund was to finance infrastructure and strategically important projects where the anticipated returns might simply be too low for conventional infrastructure capital. Given the amount of sophisticated private capital already invested in Tungsten West, including Lansdowne, I don’t think that necessarily applies here, but it should sit in the back of my mind. In this case, however, the strategic importance is precisely part of the thesis. The really interesting question now becomes terminal value. The 2025 feasibility study produced an NPV7.5 of around $190m using tungsten at just $400/mtu, but by February the company calculated that prevailing tungsten and tin prices increased that NPV to around $1.7bn. Spot prices obviously shouldn’t simply be extrapolated for decades, but the sensitivity tells you something important about the embedded optionality. If Hemerdon successfully reaches nameplate production, establishes itself as a strategically important Western supplier and ultimately develops more of its enormous resource, what is a scarce, permitted, producing tungsten asset with potentially several decades of life actually worth? That number could look very different from the £600m market capitalisation investors are putting on Tungsten West today. We I guess originally bought the concept & thematic with financing risk; increasingly we may be owning the terminal value of a tangible scalable asset. 148·Aug 25

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