EdgeMeter evaluates one question about any entry signal: after transaction costs, is there positive expectancy. It places no orders, reads history, tests the signal on each closed bar, and prints the result.
It reports gross edge across user-defined holding periods, net per-trade after costs (one position at a time), a t-statistic on non-overlapping trades, share of profitable months, and maximum drawdown. A random control with identical firing rate is included to validate the simulator and define the noise floor.
A common failure mode is overlap inflation. If forward windows overlap, treating samples as independent can overstate significance by roughly sqrt(horizon). EdgeMeter avoids this by simulating sequential, non-overlapping trades.
Pass criteria require net per trade > 0 after cost, |t| > 2, and at least 3 profitable months out of 4. Costs are e...
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