Best case and Worst case scenario:
🟢 1. Fed +25 bps, dovish guidance
Most bullish outcome for risk assets:
Gold: ↔️ / 🟢
Silver: 🟢
Equities: 🟢
Indian equities: 🟢
Smallcaps: 🟢🟢
Bonds: 🟢
USD: 🔴
Crude oil: 🟢 / ↔️
🟡 2. Fed +25 bps, neutral guidance
Initial volatility, then markets settle:
* Gold: 🔴 → ↔️
* Silver: 🔴🔴
* Equities: 🔴 → ↔️
* Indian equities: 🔴 → ↔️
* Smallcaps: 🔴🔴
* Bonds: 🔴
* USD: 🟢
* Crude oil: ↔️ / 🟢
🔴 3. Fed +25 bps, hawkish guidance
The dangerous scenario:
* Gold: 🔴🔴
* Silver: 🔴🔴🔴
* US equities: 🔴🔴
* Indian equities: 🔴🔴
* Smallcaps: 🔴🔴🔴
* US yields: 🟢🟢
* USD: 🟢🟢
* Crude oil: 🔴 / ↔️
🔴🛢️ 4. Fed +25 + hawkish + crude keeps exploding higher
This is the worst macro combination:
* Gold: 🔴 initially, potentially 🟢 later
* Silver: 🔴🔴🔴
* US equities: 🔴🔴🔴
* Indian equities: 🔴🔴🔴
* Smallcaps: 🔴🔴🔴
* Bonds: 🔴🔴
* US yields: 🟢🟢🟢
* USD: 🟢🟢
* Crude: 🟢🟢🟢
* Inflation expectations: 🟢🟢🟢
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