AMZN — #LONG I’m opening a long position in Amazon around $257.00. ▪️… — LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management) — TG.ME

▪️ Entry: $257.00
▪️ Stop Loss: $244.00
▪️ Take Profit: $285.00
▪️ Price Target: $300.00
▪️ Expected Return: +16.73%
▪️ Risk: −5.06%
▪️ Risk / Reward: 3.31 : 1
▪️ Leverage: 1.5×
▪️ Portfolio Allocation: 5%
▪️ Portfolio Risk: −0.38%
▪️ Time Horizon: 1–3 months

I’m buying Amazon here because I think the market is still separating the retail business from the part of Amazon that matters more to the valuation.
AWS.
The AI infrastructure cycle is getting more expensive, more capital intensive and more competitive.
That creates risk.
It also creates an enormous opportunity for the companies that already own the distribution, data centers and enterprise relationships required to deploy that compute.
Amazon is one of them.
AWS has already invested hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure, and the company continues expanding capacity as AI demand grows. Amazon also remains deeply connected to Anthropic through cloud infrastructure and distribution. Reuters
I don’t need Amazon to become the dominant AI company for this trade to work.
I need AWS to remain one of the places where the AI economy gets built.

AMZN closed the latest session at $262.43, while pre-market trading is around $256–257.
That gives me a cleaner entry after the stock’s recent strength rather than forcing me to chase the move above $260. Investing.com
The stock’s 52-week high is around $287, which is also why my first take-profit level sits near $285. Investing.com
The broader target is $300.
Amazon reports earnings on October 29.
That gives the position a clear catalyst and enough time for the market to reassess both AWS growth and the economics behind the current AI infrastructure buildout. Investing.com
I don’t need a perfect quarter.
I need AWS demand to remain durable and margins across the broader business to stay strong enough to support continued investment.

My invalidation level is $244.
Below that area, the current setup begins to lose the structure that makes the entry attractive.
The biggest risk here is not that Amazon suddenly stops being relevant.
It is that the market begins questioning whether the enormous amount of capital flowing into AI infrastructure can generate adequate returns.
That debate is already becoming louder across the industry. Reuters
If Amazon loses the setup while that narrative is getting worse, I don’t want to sit around waiting for the thesis to rescue the position.
I would rather take the predefined loss and reassess.

▪️ Bull case: AWS growth accelerates, AI workloads continue expanding and earnings reinforce the view that Amazon can monetize infrastructure investment at scale.
▪️ Base case: AWS remains durable, retail margins stay healthy and the stock moves back through $285 toward $300.
▪️ Bear case: AI infrastructure spending begins to look less economical, AWS growth disappoints or rising rates compress valuations across large-cap technology.

Amazon is interesting because the market still talks about it as several different companies.
Retail.
Advertising.
Logistics.
Cloud.
AI.
I think that complexity is part of the opportunity.
The retail business gives Amazon scale.
Advertising gives it margin.
AWS gives it infrastructure.
And AI gives AWS another reason for customers to spend more.
I’m not betting that every dollar Amazon spends on AI produces an immediate return.
That would be unrealistic.
I’m betting that very few companies are better positioned to monetize the infrastructure cycle if demand remains strong.
At $257, I think the upside is large enough to justify taking that risk.